UPDATE: Arkansas Poll shows waning support for marijuana legalization

November 3, 2022 By Griffin Coop

The Arkansas Poll, conducted by Janine Parry of the University of Arkansas, showed support for Issue 4 at 41% with 59% in opposition. Previous polls by Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College found support at 58.5% in September and 50.5% last month.

Robert McLarty, campaign director for Responsible Growth and a veteran of political campaigns, said the Arkansas Poll lacks credibility and does not reflect the campaign’s own polling.

The Arkansas Poll was in the field for three weeks, McLarty said, which makes it less reliable.

Why is that?

McLarty said voters’ opinions are constantly changing as they are faced with changing messages and different volumes of advertisements during the campaign.

“So, if you polled someone on this issue three weeks ago and they started seeing a new message that moved them to support [the issue], that voter would be identified as a “no” even though that person’s mind changed,” McLarty said in a text message.

McLarty provided the example of the ethics reform proposal on the ballot in 2014 in which the Arkansas Poll that year showed the measure losing with 28% in favor and 56% opposed. On Election Day, the measure passed with 52.43% voting in favor and 47.57% opposed.

“That’s an incredible swing and way beyond the margin of error,” McLarty said.

The Arkansas Poll is conducted annually by Parry of the Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society in the University of Arkansas Department of Political Science.

Here are the results of this year’s poll.

Here’s a link to past polls.

UPDATE:

Responsible Growth Arkansas Campaign Director Robert McLarty released the following statement today:

“Over the past several months, we’ve witnessed several surveys regarding Issue 4. Recently, Talk Business and Politics released a survey taken during the same period, showing the opposite results. Therefore, the only result that will matter is the result that Arkansas voters will decide on Election Day. Today’s news is an excellent reminder to those who want to legalize cannabis to get out and vote for Issue 4. I strongly encourage Arkansans to seriously consider what Issue 4 can do for our state. Over the next five days, for those who have not voted, want to legalize cannabis safely, fund the police, fund cancer research, create jobs, and create millions of dollars in revenue for our state, now is the time to vote for Issue 4. Now is your time to make history. Your vote can make a difference. Vote for Issue 4.”